As the last full day of the 2012 presidential campaign gets under way, the Signal's prediction remains the same as it was nearly nine months ago: President Barack Obama will win reelection with 303 electoral votes, winning Ohio and Virginia but losing Florida to Gov. Mitt Romney.

There is only about a 15 percent chance that we'll actually be correct, based on our prediction model, given the many combinations of close states that could go either way. Obama has a 24.8 percent likelihood of winning Florida, while Romney has a 40.8 percent chance of snagging Virginia and a 19.9 percent chance of securing Ohio. Romney needs to sweep all three states to secure the election.

This may make it seem like all hope is lost for Romney — the odds of him defending Florida and taking Ohio and Virginia are about 6 percent if you simply multiply the probabilities. While the Signal is predicting an Obama victory, we're not calling it with 94 percent certainty. That is because state elections are not entirely independent events. The polls could be systematically biased toward Obama based on faulty assumptions about voter turnout, or the final polls could fail to capture a late surge in support for the Republican candidate.

Here's a rundown of where those three states stand:

In Florida, Romney leads Obama with 50.65 percent of the vote, not counting third-party candidates. The two main poll aggregation sites, Pollster and RealClearPolitics, disagree over the inclusion of several recent polls, but both point to a slight lead for Romney. The two main prediction market sites, Betfair and Intrade, also disagree over the level of the lead, but they both point to a likely win for Romney.

Long lines have marred early voting in the Florida. Republicans are expected to benefit from the reduction of early voting from 14 to eight days, especially the elimination of voting on the Sunday prior to the election, where African-American churches historically voted en mass after church. Even so, 4.3 million votes were cast early, and the state is on track to just about match 2008 voting figures.

In Virginia, Obama leads Romney with 50.50 percent of the poll-share going to either of the two candidates. This is essentially the opposite situation to Florida, but with one key distinction: There is much less variance in the Virginia polls. Where the Florida polls swing wildly, the Virginia polls provide a small but consistent lead for Obama. Prediction markets are in full agreement with Obama's small lead in Virginia.

In Ohio Obama leads Romney with 51.65 percent of the poll-share going to either of the two candidates. This lead was buoyed over the weekend by another round of strong polls for Obama: 5 point lead, 4 point lead, 8 point lead, 3 point lead, and 2 point lead. The prediction markets keep drifting more and more confident of an Obama victory in Ohio.

The math is pretty basic: Romney can only be as likely to win the country as he is to win Ohio. Romney is currently 19.9 percent likely to carry Ohio. Romney can still win this election, but Obama is heavily favored as we head into the final stretch.

Follow the state-by-state and overall presidential predictions in real time with PredictWise.com

We will no tommorrow night I think there will be a lot of surprises.

He will get 270 for sure, 4 more years for obama ( i think)

i don't understand kina nepali haru obama obama bhanchan ? yo 4 brisa man any change mahile ta testo kehi dekhina ? Change change bhanera matrai bhanera change hudaina!!!

www.cnn.com/election/2012/ecalculator#

Yo pani herne ki?

i completely agree with Yeap !!!! I didn't see either doing any changes ....

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

I think this site prediction is better than anything I have seen.

Its rather funny to find out that Nepalese carry the socialist views that we grew up with in Nepal to US. This country's essence is Capitalism and Individualistic society, take those two away and America doesn't exist! Besides, why favor the Dems who want to follow the same model that EU failed on? Where has social welfare programs ever survived?

http://whattheheckhasobamadonesofar.com/

President Obama already won.. no words period. 

Though it may not matter to me who wins the election, I do not understand why a party

tries to suppress voting rights by reducing early votings hours/day
dont want fair pay for both men and women
dont want to have minumum wage
dont want to invest in innovation, research and development, infrastures
dont want consumer protection such as credit cards fees
want students to have low interest rate for student loans
want health care for all  etc
dont believe in science and thinks that rape wound nt make one pregnant

These extreme views made many like me to support liberals.

If conservative wins, supreme court will be more conservative and this country moves further right.  I dont see this country progressing further based on conversative/extreme views.

Nepalithito/Yeap,

http://www.prosperity.com/Ranking.aspx

Where do you get the ideas that social saftey nets do not work? The only capitalist country in this world is USA and its not even capitalist at its entirity. Just take a look at the scores above and you will see its all the socialist countries that are on the top on almost every single prosperity sector.

The only truth out there is that Capitalism does not work and USA has become the example of that. Now, here is to why most Nepali root for Dems: if republicans really have their way, all immigrants should be treated like illegal immigrants, they should be kept either at sub human levels or sent back to their home country. Why would anyone root for the party where the majority think you are a sub human?

SIDSTER,
What did Dems really accomplish in terms of immigration in the past 4 years? How were u impacted at a personal level(think to yourself-dont have to be out loud) from democratic immigration policies?
I think Reps value creative minds, creative minds have built this country to where its at today. Therefore, if you're deserving, no political party is going to treat you unfair. If you're talking about illegal immigration, that's an entirely different topic.
As far as tax-driven social welfare programs, as much as you guys pount on why it should stay put, taxes are simply the biggest expenditure to the middle-class. The same middle class that's shrinking and will shrink further with democratic economic plans.
Exactly my point, capitalism is in the roots of American Identity. There're somethings we keep as a national pride, capitalism whether it works/not will remain until doomsday in this country. So, stay put or get out!
Also, what drove Bin Laden to his fate? Is it the Reps aggressive attack or Dems diplomatic approach? I think Obama just got the last piece of pie left, the work was done and left for him to claim the trophy. 
Final words, keep voting for Obama and shrink the same middle class he pledges to protect. GOD BLESS AMERICA!!!!

Yes, republicans do value creative minds but the catch is that the creative mind will have to be packaged under white skin. If its not then it is still a creative mind but a creative mind of a sub human.

Exactly my point, capitalism is in the roots of American Identity. There're somethings we keep as a national pride, capitalism whether it works/not will remain until doomsday in this country. So, stay put or get out!

Capitalism does not exist, it never did. It never will with the biggest millitary, Social Security, Public Education, Medicare and Medicaid. Capitalism is a crap that was fed to Americans so as to show americans that they are different from communists. This is a changing world. Individualism is a tool for brainwashing. If all the people are called an individual then they will never be powerful as a group and if people are not powerful they cannot do shit for change. Cold war is over, there are no enemies, and people are informed now. So stay put or move right back at you. If you do not like this apply for Iranian Green Card...Iran is closest to being a capitalist country now.

Capitalism does not exist, it never did. It never will with the biggest millitary, Social Security, Public Education, Medicare and Medicaid.

Exactly all these social programs are for people like you that jump up and down when liberals talk about protecting middle class :) Besides, when we went from Industrial Age to Information Age, these social policies were necessary to protect the masses. People were not earning retirement pensions like they used to. Now, even retirements are self-contributed and funds are invested in wall street. Thus, these are just expensive cushions to protect you my friend ;) 

Individualism is a tool for brainwashing. If all the people are called an individual then they will never be powerful as a group and if people are not powerful they cannot do shit for change.
 
Corporations are not run by a single person, neither is a capitalistic society. I am lost on what you're trying to say!
What Change are you talking about?
In contrary, visionaries are people- whose vision is always challenged by the masses, yet they follow their dream and come out as world changers. Please provide me an example of something that people created as a group ;)

Cold war is over, there are no enemies, and people are informed now. 

Point being? People are informed about what?

Also, dont forget we are the biggest consumer in this economy- Capitalistic Netted Global Economy

To all Nepali Republicans,

If the Teabagger really have their way they would like to shove a two feet long "ghocho" in your brown rear and send you back to wherever you hail from and YET you cheer for the same Tea Baggin group who think you are almost equivalant to Monkeys. There is a reason why republican party is composed of 90% whites. A nepali cheering for repubs is equivalant to a ho cheering for the pimp. Wake up....you can chose not to agree with Democratic policies but republican party is not your party.

किन टाउको दुखाऊने कुन पक्षको पक्षधर हो भनि ?  नेपाली राजनीति जस्तै सुरु भयो यो साझामा पनि ! गरिब जति ए माले हुनै पर्ने अनि धनि मानि हरु कांग्रेस ? तेसतै बध्याता लाध्न खोजेको अनुभब गरे |
You never know who will be president until the results is out. Speak your mind but do not bash others.