Hey folks,
Lets make informed guesses out here. Do you even think there will be one party with a majority?  Of course, assuming that the elections are free and fair (which will probably not happen). As I see it, no party will be able to have a majority in the parliament, specially with the proportional system in place as well. However, I believe that Maoists will be the ones to lose their face again. I doubt if they can win more than a few seats under first past the post system.  It is highly unlikely for them to win more than a few seats because UML is way too popular and has a great grass root network. I won't be surprised if they don't win a single seat in first past the post system. I believe they will gather a few seats in the proportional system.

NC will benefit the most from the division among the communists. I think UML will do slightly better than it did last time when it was divided into ML and UML. NC will get more seats in the first past the post system than any other parties. Proportional system will possibly divide equal number of seats to NC and UML.

 Maoists are a weaker force compared to then ML because most of the ML leaders were well established and known to the public and they had been winning elections from their constituencies. Maoists' case is totally different. Some of them joined Maoists party after losing elections-many even dub them as taking arms because they lost general elections. So, maoists will face a battle to save their faces. Its pretty tough out there for them. Prachanda was hoping that UML will let him have communist votes but UML turned its back on him. He will certainly lose the election in KTM but might lose both the elections (unless of course, they use force).

Anybody ready to give their percentages? Mine would be as follows:
NC-39%
UML-33%
Maoists-7%
Others-21%

Bibas, you are on the edge.....It should be very similar to this, unless Maoists capture booths and mobilize its terrorists youths in the name of YCL......I would have thought of UML for majority, had maoists (terrorists) were not there....but my guess goes like this:

If fair election:

Congress: 45%

UML: 40%

Terrorists (Maoists): 2%

Others: 13%

If these Maoists terrorists capture booths (very likely to happen as Madhav Kumar Nepal said),

Congress: 38%

UML: 30%

Terrorists: 25%

Others:7%

 

i would go with this

If fair election:

Congress (all ghusiya corrupts): 35%

UML (opportunists): 40%

Terrorists (Maoists): 5%

Others (including mandales and biharis and rest of the world): 20%

UML------------> 40%

NC-------------->35%

Terrorrists-------->10%

Mandales-------->5%

others------------>10%

Its good to see somebody predicting UML higher than Congress, and of course my vote goes to UML or Congress depending upon the person who is running in the election, but since these terrorists are there to cut UML votes, I am certain that Congress would lead the number of winning posts.

I believe Maoists will sweep clean in villages (it is not that I like them to win!). In cities you can not say anything. In southern Nepal, you can not predict either as turnout is likely to be very low. Anyway, competition is likely to be among three parties in North and among four in South.

   

Well Tarai groups will take the tarai votes. Its hot topic there
so May be, 15 %
Congress and UML about 50%
Terrorists 5%
This time a lot of people (like me-a little conservative) will think about saving the monarch so RPP 15%
Others and independents 15%

MN_Nepali

Which RPP you talking about? There are two RPPs I guess.

 

 

what are these guys thinking? NC and UML are the same old parties who did not do for Nepali people in the past. They sucked us and became fatter and fatter. They are Indian and US pichilaggu. So we need to defeat them to make new Nepal. We need change and Maoists are going to bring like Obama is saying here in USA.

Maoist- 25%

NC-30%

UML-30%

Others-15%

it was expected......... otherwise how can they get 25% -avagi kale, if i am not wrong,  you are referring to this for your proposed 25%

19 including candidate ‘missing’
Maoists attack UML campaigners

Kantipur Report

It is politics. UML and NC used to distribute money, rice, clothes in the past election. Everything is fair in election. Jasko shakti usko bhakti Nepalma.

abhagi kale, Some maoist like you are trying to disrupt the upcoming election and you are saying "jasko shakti usko bhakti"......so cheap thinking. These terrorists like you are responsible for carrying the country to this situation and then comes other ghusyahaa netas.....but maoists must be hung to death....

dont get over-excited now.

you will be surprised to hear that on a nice sunny day these terrorists beat up your family and abducted your under 18 brother to join their minors with guns, (dont want to tell what they did to your sister). JASKO SHAKTI TESKO BHAKTI.-everything is fair

exactly....oi abhagi kale see what these terrorists gonna do to ur family and then only you will realize.....

CopiCat I am with RPP Nepal man. Save the monarch, bring stability then we can think about anything else.

Nowadays, Prachanda says that some people are going to assassinate his leader.He is tring to  gain popularity guessing something will happen in the future. Wait for a few days, if he really feel to loss election, he will use his own supporter to make a drama and blast nearer to their homes and  their programs to collect sympathetic voles, lets wait and see.................

Thats a very cheap popularity,

He doesnot even know that his YOUNG CRIMINAL LEAGUE is beating up other people (this is a fact) and even if he knows he doesnot want to talk about it.

and he is in some sort of imagination like what would happen if i say that maoist leaders would be assinated, will i get more claps from the audiences, will i be highlighted in the news.......

this is not the way man, you have already killed enough and dont fool people anymore.......stop this BS***

Ok now to RPP,

RPP is in the verge of making a history that there once was a party called RPP. i am afraid they wont even be able to get as much votes as would these terrorists and biharis. No offense and its a fact; the thing is i am feeling bored at work.

.
Congress: 40%

UML: 30%

Tarai: 10%

Jaati Pati: 10%

Maoists: 2%

Gyane Pancha: 2%

Others: 6%

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