Happy New Year to All Nepalis here in Sajha.com, and elsewhere in the world including in Nepal. God bless that this calendera continues to play important role in the lives of Nepalis, and I will get a chance to say Happy New Year in this April 13th. My wishes for good of Nepal are now vaporizing faster than ever.

If my predictions ever failed miserably, it failed this time. Completely upside down. My only excuse is that I did not have enough data.

I am now thinking what extreme will Maoist want to do in the aftermath of election victory:

1. Say "Sayonara to King Gyanendra". Will Gyanendra sucide? Best way to die while being King (Mathematically, it is better to be zero, instead of being minus). Let Paras decide his faith. They might even bring him on the road have gillete and kill. For communists public prosecution is the best way to keep grip on power. 21st century version of French revolution. In France, people in later days, were saying "Only 100 prosecuted today?", and they started counting the number, and did not care unless among them is you own. That day is ahead.

2. Military. They will change the head of army. Bring Maoist or puppet of Maoist as head of the army. Those Armies on the Maoist radar, will be sacked and given death penalty.

3. Civil Service: All non-Maoists will leave or be baptized to Maoists.

4. Local bodies: Unresolved problem will be resolved. I am guessing that the remaining UML local level cadres will turn themselves into Maoists, because UML is no more a powerful force, after all the Maoists are also communists. Bachna pani ta paryo ni.

5. Property (initially confiscated land, later other industries and biz): Count your property. First land, then banks. All banks will be nationalized.

6. Temples and religion: Hindus will be attacked first. At least the highest body of Hindu ... will be banned. The Bikram sambat will be changed to another one to reduce the influence of Hindu Religion in their politics.

7. Educational institution: All private schools will be nationalized. Equivalence of Mahendra Mala will be introduced.

8. Opponents and supporters of opponents from each village will be ejected or forced out of the village. Will change in to killing field. Pran based on whom killing field is no more there to watch another killing field in Nepal (he died on March 31, 2008), and we will see more "Pran" in Nepal, more horror stories.

9. There will be no election, well there will be election like in China or in North Korea or in Cuba, but these will be only in Name, and it will be very similar to the one King Gyanendra tried and failed. But Maoist will not fail.

10. Will give something to India and China (china may want all Tibetans be ejected out of Nepal). Indian Politics will need something in return, so that they can enjoy: Hydroelectric power generations. Don't forget that it is Indians who let Maoist grow using their land, and they are the one influenced to bring them on Table when they realized the Maoist are power enough to be a political force so that they can use them in their benefit later.

These are my extreme guesses. But, everything depends on whether they can have 2/3 majority or not? Madhes is the only hope that I have now. If they don't get enough votes in east Terai, and MPRF or other Madhesi parties, then the equation might change. Even throwing King out of Nepal. King might stay, because non-Maoists might need him as a Draupadi in the gamble.

God Bless you Gyanendra, and Nepali Janata. Unfortunately God did not bless to UML. It is end of UML. Congress may come out, but UML will not. I feel very sorry for UML.

Now, should we accept the poll result? Yes, we must. That is democracy, and that will leave door open for us to reach to Nepali people with a new mandate. Make sure that they don't become Polpot, and YCL does not become another Khamerouge.

GP

 

Here is what NC and UML can do to survive the dark (darkest days in the history of current UML) days:

1. Accept the election result. A very first step. Do not put blame on anyone for this bizzare result. Take it positively. If your supporters were locked (by threatens or intimidation), still don't try to have pour your unrealistic or realistic excuses. It was your mistake, you had your government, you can not blame for your inability to drive your supporters to voting booth.

2. Work genuinely with people in the other side of aisle of the ruling party in parliament, so that you are heard.

3. Let the leadership change. It is a right time to "REORGANIZE" both parties' leaderships. Makune, RCP, Sushil Koirala, and others on the front row should give up their grip. Young people like Gagan Thapa should come to front? Bring more educated people in your wagon so that they can defend in intelligent and convincing way. Fire the F-ing corrupts like Khume and GRJ .....

4. Make informed decisions. No cheating, no hiding, no tricks. It is where you failed in the past. You almost never had any informed decisions.

5. Keep good relations with USA and EU. But, China and India can not be neglected, but they can act like a traitor when they smell flesh. Remember Chinese ambassador went to CPN-Maoist's program in their jungle days - I believe a breach of protocal. Chinese might even recommend CPN-Maoist to use filters in communication media as it does in China.

6. Go to your base: people routinely, inform them what you are doing, and what you want to do in the past. Take risk of your life, Maoists / YCL can not kill everyone, and they will certainly intimidate, but if your whole party cadres are interested, then they can make.

7. Tell the public what you did in the past. Education, I consider, sector is the biggest achievement after 2046. Explain what you could not do, primarily because you did not have enough resource. Being a poor country, the expectations are high, and resources are limited, so based on availability of resources, you did try your best with some minor weakness. Maoist have promised so many promises which they also can not fulfill because of the same reason: limited resources. This is where you failed to explain, inform, and convince Nepali people. It happened because your party tops: CWC is full of crapy people. Keep brigade of intelligent people behind you armed with data, and information. Learn something about GAME THEORY, RISK ANALYSIS, and RELIABILITY based on real data. That is about modern politics. You don't have to do any analysis, your advisors will do it, but so far you were trying to do all those things by yourself which you don't know. Your job should be to let people know in their understandable language, which intelligent, and educated brigade of advisors lack. Come up with numbers, and let people know the numbers. Present quantitative information in qualitative ways.

8. Work with media. Media can make things upside down. Take media beside you, so that what you are doing is transparent to people. This is how US Government makes cases with public, and try to get support of the public. This is where Maoists lag. Their philosophy is always hide the information, they believe that you people are like ship, they don't need all information, and they just provide what makes them feel safer. Look at china.

9. Work with professionals: Engineers, doctors, lawyers, and others. Some of them deal with public in every day work, and they can be very influential. Despite BRB took pistols (not sure whether he ever used it), why does he like western style "Dr." because it matters.

10. Be positive. Positive. Positive. Optimistic. No venom against your opponent, and it certainly looks like oxymoron: who the hell will like positive political ad or positive things as a news... Time magazine calls such people looking for positive in news media as oxymoron. I certainly don't like the style of election here in US: trying to prove: "I am less worse".  I know it may not work (positive political ad), but Obama is getting better. Why not we in Nepal.

Well, people of Nepal voted Maoists, it is their choice (I will not use "OURS", I am not part of this election), and their future is in their choice. Good Luck to them. If Maoists win next election or they remain in power for another 5 years, I will give up my Nepali Citizenship. It is not worth being a "communist" Nepali.

GP

"If your citizenship shows up in the list of communist countries, that citizenship is no longer marketable".

Well GP, your analysis of the aftermath has ignored one big part, i.e US and India. Maoist, definitely would love to do what /how you have stated.

BUT

1. I do not think their leadership has balls to touch banks and business houses.

2. They can not deny and go against the international community as our budget is and will totally depend upon international aid. Just see what happened in Melamchi/ ADB case.

3. They would definately try to merge and have puppet COA, but i guess they would not right away do that unless and only if they gets green signal from India.

4. They will try to be extremely pro indian otherwise their life will be cut short within a min as india did in King case, when king went against many intrests of india. So i guess they know it well.

5 Of course attacking hinduism has already began and they will continue to do that but i doubt they will succeed in a great deal.

6. My guess is they will only survive only at the mercy of india. But again, will US and western community will trust india's policy which's already failed as maoist emerges victorious?

7. Poor and real honest, and rural people will continue to suffer no doubt.

AGAIN, will they survive through till next election,??? i doubt. You watch out in a next few days, you will see another coalition against maoist at behest of western ( US) communities. So nepal will still be pendulum for another 10 years.

While I accept people's verdict, but feel pitty for them. And those who think  people's virdict is  always correct, HELLO are you kidding me?? People who come down on street in Hritik roshan case were also nepali, people who are ablazing public properties in the name of lok tantra is also nepali. SO don't lay this trap " people's verdict".  Go back to history, " Socrate" was assassinated because he also believed people's verdict could be wrong!

 

interesting thread this, amid cynicism, blaming game, bickering and whining --the most recent trend adopted by some in sajha-- after the initial results of election. And i agree with everyone here who are intelligently alarmed but hopeful, supportive and optimistic.

one thing that i have found or rather reconfirmed i should say is that we might be one of the poorest nation and our people might be, in majority, uneducated or illiterate for that matter, but we are politically very much aware and hence very smart voters. we are considerate yet unforgiving when needed to be. one of the reasons of this large range of characters, as i see, is because we are enthusiastic and emotional people--the voters turn out in not only this but in all elections so far is an indication.

anyways, coming back to the considerate and unforgiving nature of ours, we are the same people who overwhelmingly supported NC back in the 1992 election and gave them our mandate and helped them win by majority. it took the winners less than three years to screw up themselves and the country when they dissolved the parliament and announced the mid-term election (thanks to Girija et. al.). However, we made sure they pay the price, result was obvious in the mid-term--UML became the largest party and NC was restricted to second. The scuffle for power and chair continued though amid maoists insurgency and the rest we all know is history.

By the end of 2002, we had become more unforgiving for the parties and maoists than considerate for the King. We happily let Gyanendra take over in 2003. It was Gyanendra's blunder to think what he thought and try to justify it but Nepal and the international community were not on the same page as they used to be in 2017 BS when Mahendra was able to murder democracy without much hassle (internal and external). Gyanendra failed miserably and was forced to step back because we, the people, had recognized the demon behind the mask. We were unforgiving again.

Now the initial results of CA have show-cased the same unforgiving nature of ours for seven parties--mostly for NC and UML---and the considerate and hopefulness towards the new force, maoists. Whether this new force is progressive for the development of nepal or not, only time will tell. But the voting pattern has given all the more reason for us to believe in ourselves and be optimistic and secure about our future regardless of who the leading party/ies gonna be -- be it Maoists, anyone else, or combination of them for that matter.

I know some of you may be thinking why am I reiterating the stuffs which most or all of you already know but I just want us to see the pattern, believe in ourselves and try to be optimistic for the future. Maoists, if they are intelligent which I personally think they are, will not commit the same blunder that Gyanedra did, will not fight for the same damn kursi and lose faith of people like seven parties did. Understand that they don't need to impose any autocracies in Nepal and I will tell you why:

1) There is no need of it when the majority of Nepalese have given the verdict in their favor already.

2) History is the greatest teacher of all. As Einstein(I think) said: "It's imperative to learn from the mistakes of others, coz life is too short to commit all those mistakes by yourself and learn from them". Maoists should make sure they don't commit the same mistakes that other parties and the king did which were: being overtly selfish and tyrannical.

3) It will only bring their own downfall and in a quicker time than they can ever imagine of, if they don't confine and grow themselves within the norms and periphery of the multi-party democratic framework.

In democracy, as a supporter or a follower, it's imperative that no matter how close you are, emotionally, ideology-wise or otherwise, to your party, you must have guts, honesty and fairness to punish them when they deserve to be punished. Supporting a party even when they are committing mistakes upon mistakes is nothing but a tyranny in itself. Democracy cannot flourish if the democratic forces don't punish themselves for their mistakes and learn from them.

To those who believe in this kind of "people's verdict".

I still doubt whether it was free, fearless, without intimidation, and a well informed election. You should look at the election result: every constituency is supposed to be representing around 100,000 people. Remove 30% as kids below 16 (considering 60 years average life expectancy in Nepal, and median age around 25: assuming 25 years ago Nepal's population was about 150 lakhs), then 70,000 people should have participated election, the number of votes that any winner in Kathmandu secured is so low that it makes me surprising.

Why the hell such a low rate of vote cast? Was there free, fearless, without intimidation and a well informed environment to cast the vote that a voter would like to cast? I doubt.

As the so called "International" observers (which Maoist leader Prachanda was not happy about: read Kantipur daily of few days ago, he was blaming that International .... are playing foul game with so many observers, now, he must be happy and I will not be surprised if he turns coin upside down) believed that it was a great CA, I can not deny this election result.

Meanwhile, I would like to hear whether Maoists used intimidation, fear, and threats particularly against those voters who were planning to vote a candidate who is not a Maoist? I still leave this question open for discussion, and let history judge it in the days ahead. Well, even if you did not vote in this eleciton, you have to accept the result.

Here, I am questioning the process and not the result. The process published on news media tells it not hard to call it questionable process in a supposed to be democratic election. Period.

I am waiting to hear their  progress report on 101th day as "100days achievements".

GP

I am looking at the numbers below which keep changing, but given there are two parts to this election, I wonder if people are jumping the gun here by talking about some sort of a red revolution:

Also, another question to ask the Maoists and watch for in their performance should they govern is how they are going to financially run this country. Our country is run by remittances and foreign aid and the last time we had a Communist government foreign aid slowed down significantly (it got worse during the King's direct rule) . What I am looking to see is how the CPN Maoist is going to pay for the "change" that they sold during the campaign
.
Just a thought.

hey there Haddock, they have the YCL to continue extorting the public for their finances, ain't it?  Bank Robbings, looting, etc will prolly be the only option then.  LOLs  And controlling the media would be the best way to have a surge in these atrocious behavior without the intl media knowing much about anything!  Just my thoughts. 

if ther r ppl abusing the media jus like SAMSARA i think little control is absolutely necessary....

ther are always ppl like samsara so some control is absolutely necessary.........

Samsara

LOL. I hope they dont have to resort to robbing banks. Like those before them , they may simply choose to raid the national coffers.

Follow the money trail and the "red revolution" might already be in peril. Which is why me thinks all this sky-is-falling talk by people on Sajha is  premature and frankly a bit of a stretch by any measure.

CH,

Sometime back I heard that nepal rastra bank has about 1 billion dollar in reserve and some more gold. For Maoists, it is great chance to use it. 1 billion dollar = 70 billion rupees, and I am not sure how worth it is in economist's view, but the way it will be used will be very important whether they can survive a long time with this 1 billion+gold in reserve (plus nationalization of Gyanendra property: hira jwaharat ...., how much do you have Gyanendra ji?) , and ... nationalization of private banks, plus extra taxing the riches ... Anyway, china is not going to sponsor your government other than sponsoring a few road. India is no more trustable partner in the eye of Western Countries including US. Unfortunately, US is now afraid of China (in this Tibet vs Olympic Game fiasco: President Bush want to attend communist China organized olympic game because he is afraid of embargo from China: based on discussion on CNN last week. I said "Ghos, China is now so powerful") and India, which is now upside down. I believe India will use satellites to control CPN-Maoist government, afterall Prachanda had told us several time that he met Indian Ambassador to nepal several time without letting any media know. He blasts India in public, and shakes hand with them without media's presence.

India will have virtual control over Maoist government? If Maoist get 2/3 majority, I am wondering whether our triangular national flag will be replaced by Hathkanda .... as many communist countries in the past did. They smashed PN Shah's statue, why not this: tear the flag. Did you ever see any Maoist waving the flag? Are you ready to hear this change? I forgot list this change in my top 10 list.

GP

Haddock, lets hope what you say is true...In today's world, everyone has a price and these Commies are no exception.  The "money-trail" is what would end up saving Nepal for good from these fools, or so I think.

GP

Isn't talk of a 2/3 majority a bit premature at this time? As I said in another thread yesterday, this ain't over till the fat lady sings ie till the results of both direct and proportional seats are announced. Maybe they will win, maybe they wont. By trying to get ahead of the voters, we might be falling into the same trap that the media and others fell into.

GP

Isn't talk of a 2/3 majority a bit premature at this time? As I said in another thread yesterday, this ain't over till the fat lady sings ie till the results of both direct and proportional seats are announced. Maybe they will win, maybe they wont. By trying to get ahead of the voters, we might be falling into the same trap that the media and others fell into.

Since this election is for writing a new constitution and not for governing the country for full term, Nepalis have voted very sensibly. By any means who am I to judge the sense and sensibility of the fellow citizens? Democracy means governing by majority and if majority of the people want Maoists, good for the country. For me, the result makes a perfect sense because,

Maoists had been the most representative in terms of fielding candidates from all castes, creeds, class, sects, sex etc. Their involvement in the constitution making process makes the constitution inclusive of all. What they did for raising political awareness in the rural parts of the country is even more significant.

NC and UML thought Nepali politics is their inherent property. But Nepalis didn't fall into their trap yet again. They said improve or get lost. While Joshi, Khadka, Sujata, Bamdev were smacked, the likes of Narahari Acharya were rewarded. This is a wake up call for these parties to come clean in the future or forget it.

 Maoists thought they could snatch power only with the barrel of the guns. Nepalis said try it out without guns and show us you can deliver. If Maoists do well, they are there to stay on. if they mess up, they will be a history. If you have keys you got to take proper care of the locks or somebody else well break in.

Lesson to the politicians:
We Nepalis know how to take care of you lot. Beware of us.

Lesson to the royalists:
Everything is history, simply accept it.

Lesson to the sajha skeptics:
You may have a better degree but Nepalis are always right when it comes to Nepali politics.
People are more powerful than any other power.

-One hopeful Nepali.

Rohitgrg, you say "Lesson to the sajha skeptics: You may have a better degree but Nepalis are always right when it comes to Nepali politics. People are more powerful than any other power"

If Nepalis are always right then why did we have 13+ government changes within the past 15 years?  Ever did any research into the subject before accepting the truth?  BTW, voters in Ktm and voters in Mugling cannot be compared in a similar light at all!  Voters in Ktm, know their politics and with the security that is provided by the police and army (who for some reason only want to remain in the city) they vote judgementally without "much" threats expecting the hope they envisioned to see in the govt.  Now, what about the voters in Bhadrapur to Dang?  With limited resources the army/police/officials have, they have no other option that turn a blind eye to whatever takes place in the polling booths!  Ever saw the video posted by MadDoGG earlier??  That my friend is the truth.  Listen, you talked truly about Ktm, BUT 90% of the population outside the city do not enjoy the same damn benefits as these cats do!!

"यि माओबादीहरु वार्तामा आउँदै आउँदैनन्" भन्थे। आए।

"वार्तामा आए पनि, यो नौटंकी मात्र हो, आफ्नो महोत्त्वाकांक्षा पुरा गर्नलाई स्वाङ् पारेका। हतियार बिसाउँदैनन्" भन्थे। बिसाए। (फ्याट्ट फुट्ट अनियमित्ता भिन्नै)

"अब चुनाव हुन दिंदै दिन्नन्" भन्थे। दिए।

"चुनावमा पत्ता साफ हुनेछ यिनेरुको, एक सिट पनि जित्ने छैनन्" भन्थे। एक त के, बहुमतै ल्याउला जस्तो पो छ त!

कुरो के भने, हामीहरु मध्ये केहिलाई नपच्ला माओबादीको यो जादु, तर यथार्थ भने हामी सबैको आँखा अगाडि छर्लङ्ग छ। माओबादी सुध्रंदै आएका छन्, र आम नेपाली जनताले त्यो कुरा बुझेका मात्र होईनन्, सहर्ष स्वीकारेका पनि छन्। नत्र ऊनीहरुले मत पाउने कुनै आधारै थिएन।

पुराना, रुढीवादी सोंचाईका नेताहरु (कांग्रेस या एमालेका) लाई घोक्रे ठ्याक लाउन सक्नु नै यो चुनावको सब भन्दा महत्त्वपूर्ण गर्व हो। नयाँ शुरुवात हुने निश्चय छ, स्वच्छ मैदानमा।

अब के होला, के नहोला, त्यो त भए पछि मात्र थाहा होला। माओबादीले सर्वाधिक मत ल्याउलान्, नल्याउलान्; या सरकार गठन गर्लान्, नगर्लान्; या खाँटी कम्युनिष्ट आधार मै गर्लान् नगर्लान्। त्यो कुरा आईलागे पछि नेपाली जनताको चित्त नबुझेमा जाईलाग्ने नै छन्/छौं।

हाललाई भने, चुनाव भयो। त्यो पनि कदर लायक सहभागिता सहित। लगभग शान्तिपूर्ण। यसैमा खुशी होऔं न! के यस्तो नेपाली राजनैतिक ईतिहास मै पहिलो पटक भएको होईन?

केहिलाई अंगुर अमिलो त भो होला, तर त्यो अमिलो अंगुर पचाऊँ, अनि भोलि चर्पिमा फालौं। पर्सिको अंगुरको स्वाद अर्कै होला, नहोला, या नपचे के उपचार गर्ने विचार गर्दै गरौंला।

चानस भनेको सबैले पाउनु पर्छ। बिषेश गरि नयाँ अनुहार, नयाँ सोंचाई, या नयाँ विचारधाराले।

Loote-jyu,

 

One question that might help us to interpret the mandate of this election is this:

 

What could have NC and UML done to woo these voters who so massively voted for Moist seeing those things absent in NC and UML ?

 

The more I think about it, the more I feel that the vote for the Maoists is not meant as a punishment to NC and UML for their past deeds, but also for their current inadequacies.

 

 

*** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ***

 

Captain,

 

Maoists are for the continuation of all-party government. So unless others want otherwise, the current model of the government (no “opposition” at all or just the fringe parties at that role) might continue.

 

Nepe

hi All , isn't this election is about making samvidan than governing country,  shouldn't  we have another election  to actually elect mp and others to run the government after  finalising the savidan. If it is then why we are talking moist will do this  n that, I guesss maoist will  have more numbers thus they will have more say in making savidan and others have less.

Nepe

Yes, that's what I have been hearing as well and think is likely to happen unless the political landscape alters dramatically in the next week or so.  Personally I think the country needs an opposition party but knowing how power hungry all the big three parties are, I doubt any of them can resist the temptation to stay out of power for long   knowing full well that another election is 2-3 years down the road. Most parties in Nepal appear to be of the belief that the benefits of incumbency outweigh it's costs which is counter-intuitive to the results of the CA and most other elections so far. I think they who stay outside the government and provide it with constructive support and criticism have a better shot in the general.

Just my thoughts.

First of all, after a long time, I am reading a good thread in sajha. Congrats to all Sajhaites.

Going back to GP's original post; I guess he wrote the worst case scenario. I don't think he is sure or wants it be like that or wishes it. As in every situation there is a worst case scenario and the best case scenario. No body is saying sky is falling (except one guy who always starts his post with wtf:p).When a party wins which praises the legacy of Stalin and Mao Zedong then such kind of skepticism is very usual, IMO. So I see cautiously optimistic and optimistic views in every post over here.Yes, we all are FED UP with Girija.

Btw. Haddock told that two third is a distant thing. But if the trend follow itself then they would achieve it.
There are certain things which havent been clear. Again, I would like to talk in the best possible "POLITICAL" scenario.
There are three types of crisis in Nepal which I assume next Maoist government has to deal with.
Political
Social
Economical

Political: They proved themselves to be the best in the game in the current situation. Less political and bureaucratic baggage also helped them a lot. The top leader Maoist has to be given the credit for this. IMO, Political change is straightforward (btw, they were able to do so) and has been accepted by the most of public, which is Federal Democratic Republic. They have right now propose 11 (mostly ethnic and some geographical) of them suiting their party and voice of the cadres( people like Gopal Khumbu, Matrika yadav and all). So this would be something which may effect Nepali politics over a long period of time. Also it would be make their party  too strong. So,how would they go forward with the division is still unclear, how would they compromise with MJF and others is still to be seen.

Social : This is a tricky issue. So far they haven't been clear. Some actions were contradictory. eg: They want less westernization where as their minister went in a Jeans to have ministerial oath. What level of freedom will they give to the civic and media society also has to be seen. Their policies towards religion is very unclear.

Economic: How would they merge socialism and capitalism and able to get the foreign loan is something even most optimist can be skeptic. So far they are saying that they would make Nepal self standing. But we all know what is the situation; so foreign help ( including diplomatic and especially technological) is something they should be able to get for any kind economic improvement.  I am very much looking forward to their Economic policies.

Also with the clean sweep and possible two third, Maoist ideology may shift to further left. The structure of current CPM_M, which basically divided into the fractions(according to newspapers). One is the liberal communist (Bhattrai Gang), Moderal Communist (Prachanda Gang) and hardcore Communist ( Kiran Gang). Now due to international politics and economic structure Moaist has changed alot in their policies. Democaratic republic is the idea of Liberal and Moderal Maoist, some hardcores are still skeptical about it. But if they win the two third then hardcores would raise their voice citing majority of people support them, which would lead the Maoist to move to further left( I won't say Hardcore communism).


This was a bumpy ride, proved almost every Sajha pundit wrong. So fasten the seat belt and get ready for the another skeptic, hateful and optimistic two years of writing constitution. And ya, If you wanna prove yourself wrong, start predicting.

But what ever party or ideology you support, Prachanda and Baburam deserves a round of applause getting this far.