I had promised that I was going to start my own thread regarding stock investments and the markets. So many things have happened since last time I was here and I really do not feel like sharing my knowledge. But a promise is a promise and there have been few people that have emailed me and supported me.

This thread will deal with investing in the stock markets. I will not discuss individual stocks but discuss ETFs like SPY, DIA, IWM and QQQQ. The one good thing about trading ETFs compared to individual stocks is the the ETFs provide instant diversification among similar companies within the same sector.

I will post more as we go along, regarding entry-price, profit-target and stop-losses. I do not think that any ETF is good or bad. It is good only if I'm making money and bad if I'm losig money.

If you have not been in the market so far, please read this as an information piece only rather than my recommendations. There is risk involved and you should know how much risk to take on any position.

Any suggestations, comments and criticisms are welcome as long as it is market related. If this thread gets out of hand and we start discussing off-topics, I'll stop posting.

Have a happy new year!!!! May 2007 bring you and your family lots of joys and riches.

oops.. wrong thread... sorrry!

oops no it is the right thread, DUMBO me!

That youtube got me jinxed.. offffffffffffff!

Yeah I don't mind if it is something off topic that you want to post every once in a while, especially if it is good books but in general I'd like to stick to stocks and markets and not lose sight of our main purpose.

TT, you mentioned that many people are shorting here. You know what that means. It means the market has ways to go. Shorting a rising market is a ticket to the poorhouse. If you remember XLNX that I had recommended around $25. The reason was that it was one of the most shorted stocks. When the short interest increases but the stock is holding up well, buy as much as you can. The short squeeze will take the stock much higher.

Bri: You're in DC? I might be there in June. I have a meeting coming up in June and it's either going to be in NJ or DC. I will find out later. If I'm there, I'll let you know.

Latest COT report showed that speculators are selling while the Commercials are buying. You want to be on the side of Commercials for most part. But for most part develop a strategy that fits your risk level and follow it. We are in a bull market until the market shows weakness, don't sell.

I came across this article on the NYT. Though I'd share it.

Wall St. Banker Jailed in Trading on 9 Deals
Federal authorities arrested an investment banker yesterday and charged him with illegally leaking confidential information on nine deals, including the $45 billion buyout of the Texas energy giant TXU.

The junior investment banker, Hafiz Muhammad Zubair Naseem, 37, who worked in Credit Suisse’s energy banking group in Manhattan, is accused of calling an unidentified banker in Pakistan and tipping him about deals shortly before they were publicly announced.

For more, go to:
- http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/04/business/04trade.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Yea Emini, i was surprised when they said that short interst was high. And i am bullish for the moment except I am also very cautious. The DOW jumping to new highs, M&A news all over the place. Too much cash being thrown around.

And that's a very interesting report you pointed to. I guess the sane minds will have to stick to the Commercials.

Toyota looks good now, no? Upbeat news recently with its best quarter ever coupled with well dominance in the dindustry makes it an attractive buy.
P/E=14.57
EPS=8.31

EPS change per year
Periods 2004 2005 2006 2007
June 64.83 86.22 81.79 115.16
September 88.61 90.07 93.33 126.10
December 84.82 90.33 122.17 133.13
March 105.13 88.69 124.43
Totals 343.39 355.31 421.72 374.39

in case the above shart doesnt appear clear, here's the link:http://stocks.us.reuters.com/stocks/financialHighlights.asp?symbol=TM&WTmodLOC=L2-LeftNav-15-Highlights


WOW!!!
Technicals: Id buy above 125. Target- god knows, (very high?) but for now I'd keep it to 135- 140

haha...lol at guest4's pick.

Sorry meant "post"..

and my toyota target was supposed to be 140-150 with a stop at or below 110.

I've posted too much today.

QUESTION: Does anybody know a good charting service that provides 20 days of intraday charts and years of historical charts? I dont use advanced technical analysis so basic moving averages, ability to draw trend lines with ease and some fancy stuff just for the heck of it like say MACD and so forth?

Thanks.

TT: Try www.prophet.net.

Hmm, I love prophet, I am using that right now via Quotetracker. My broker has really clear charts but doesnt have the ability to chart more than one moving average (it has MA bands and all that crap but i dont need those) and intraday dats is limited to 20 days.

Prohpet has it but i need to keep hitting draw all the freakin time. i guess once im a bit more loaded, i can subscribe to metastock...:P

thanks anyways....

TT and Emini,

shorting I understood a lil bit via reading Smith. To me it is a speculation that market will go down. AGain, is it the specialist shorting we are seeing or the public shorting? That would be something that I would be interested in.

To me the current thing we are seeing could be just the "Suckers' rallies" from 73-74. What say you all?

Still, one cannot get off the market and leave the portfolio unattended. That is what I feel.

Nice song TT.

So the bet is that TM is going to be like Gooogle for Auto. Hmmm? Although my wife drives Camry, and she really likes it well, I still think that expectation of 150 plus is a wee bit bullish.

Best~!

-B

Guest4,

it all happens... After all it is the monies that brings greed and vices hai na?

That is why, having a wise head even before you see monies, and more so after you get to see some, is advisable.

Best~!

-B

Well Bri, the survey I saw that was mentioned on Tv said explicitly "individuals" so i would say they are largely specultors.

Emini on the other hand mentiond Commercials- those are the guys who actually use futures trading for pure hedging purposes. For example an exporter hedging fluctuations in forex prices using futures. Commercials are the producers of grain and agricultural products and others such as energy- the MAIN reason why futures exchanges exist.

So the COT, which stands for Commitment Of Traders, shows how many long and short positions are held by these "Commercials"- vs the non commercial users, i.e. the speculators.

In either case we both mentioned speculatos being net short. But according to emini, COT report also showed Commercials are LONG meaning they're bullish. so there's no reason to fear a bearish revarsal since futures market pretty much dictates the stock market (in a general sense.)

There's a lot of literature avalable on the COT. Coincidence that I was reading it just a couple of days ago

Regarding TM Bri, its definitely not a google but it's def the ass kicker. Everyone's flocking to it. the recent reversal is only temporary. theres plenty of reason to believe it'll go up. But we cant argue it cant go down. Hence I have the price level that i would like to enter that will satisfy me and an exit and also a stop.

We also have to realize that fundamentally the auto industry is cyclical. Perhaps in a decade or so, maybe in 2 or three decades, Ford and GM will rebound and toyota will be worthless. I recently milked FORD for some money during the market correction. I was short and bagged more than 10% on the downside. But I also gie 50% of the credit to good fortune on my part. By the way, I think FORD is a good short again.

Mind you. That is a purely technical view.

With the news of acquisition by Microsoft, Yahoo is trading high both in price and volume. Though price seems falling down ... but volume ... it has crossed historic 3rd.

LMAO....My L2 screen has never danced so much. hahaha...amazing....those market makers are reaping it in today....but too late to jump in now. Yahoo hasn't been making much money these days.

It's useless to jump in on these aquisitions unless you're a long term investor.
besides Microsoft's buying an overpriced stock.

Microsoft's P/E= 22
Yahoo's P/E=55.

LMAO. I dont get it. Even the Price to Cash flow ratio of yahoo is much higher than the overall sector. sigh.

TT,

the merger is for long-term you are right... and the sole purpose is to go get on with Google.

Internet Ad monies is the buzzword here.

I still do not believe in M&A. More not in M but yes on A. The way CSCO does or say the way Larry does for ORCL.

Company culture and other facets play a big role in M&A. Look at Mercedes and Chrysler example. Not just that, quite a few right in front of us.

Best~!

-B

ps if I get a chance, I shall scan and put one HBS case for Internet Browser war between Netscape and Internet Explorer. YOU will get an idea how tech world thinks. But on second thots, ethically speaking, I would refrain to make such documents public. If someone is interested, please send me a personal email.

Hey Eveyone: I'm in Omaha right now. So far so good. I went to the Berkshire Hathway party at Borsheims. Berkshire actually own it and during the annual meeting they open it for shareholders only.

I will post some pictures. In the picture you might see one of my good friends, he is from Nepal too. But I'm going to ask him first if it is oaky to put some pictures.

I just realised that my spelling wasn't up to par, I usually don't drink but I had few drinks tonight.

Basically I don't have any respect for people that get drunk and smoke ciggarates.

Wow, would be awesome to see some nepali shareholders of Berkshire stock. so if you were at the party, it means you own berskhire share(s).

Hey Ram. Amazing.

I'd love to meet these financially successful Nepalis some day!

you said
"Basically I don't have any respect for people that get drunk and smoke ciggarates. "

Does that mean smoking AND getting drunk?

Anyways, hope you had fun at the party. I plan to be there one day before Buffett dies or retires. And I will!!!

gnite all...hope the week was good for everyone!

This marks the 400th post.

QUITE A LANDMARK!