Happy New Year to All Nepalis here in Sajha.com, and elsewhere in the world including in Nepal. God bless that this calendera continues to play important role in the lives of Nepalis, and I will get a chance to say Happy New Year in this April 13th. My wishes for good of Nepal are now vaporizing faster than ever.

If my predictions ever failed miserably, it failed this time. Completely upside down. My only excuse is that I did not have enough data.

I am now thinking what extreme will Maoist want to do in the aftermath of election victory:

1. Say "Sayonara to King Gyanendra". Will Gyanendra sucide? Best way to die while being King (Mathematically, it is better to be zero, instead of being minus). Let Paras decide his faith. They might even bring him on the road have gillete and kill. For communists public prosecution is the best way to keep grip on power. 21st century version of French revolution. In France, people in later days, were saying "Only 100 prosecuted today?", and they started counting the number, and did not care unless among them is you own. That day is ahead.

2. Military. They will change the head of army. Bring Maoist or puppet of Maoist as head of the army. Those Armies on the Maoist radar, will be sacked and given death penalty.

3. Civil Service: All non-Maoists will leave or be baptized to Maoists.

4. Local bodies: Unresolved problem will be resolved. I am guessing that the remaining UML local level cadres will turn themselves into Maoists, because UML is no more a powerful force, after all the Maoists are also communists. Bachna pani ta paryo ni.

5. Property (initially confiscated land, later other industries and biz): Count your property. First land, then banks. All banks will be nationalized.

6. Temples and religion: Hindus will be attacked first. At least the highest body of Hindu ... will be banned. The Bikram sambat will be changed to another one to reduce the influence of Hindu Religion in their politics.

7. Educational institution: All private schools will be nationalized. Equivalence of Mahendra Mala will be introduced.

8. Opponents and supporters of opponents from each village will be ejected or forced out of the village. Will change in to killing field. Pran based on whom killing field is no more there to watch another killing field in Nepal (he died on March 31, 2008), and we will see more "Pran" in Nepal, more horror stories.

9. There will be no election, well there will be election like in China or in North Korea or in Cuba, but these will be only in Name, and it will be very similar to the one King Gyanendra tried and failed. But Maoist will not fail.

10. Will give something to India and China (china may want all Tibetans be ejected out of Nepal). Indian Politics will need something in return, so that they can enjoy: Hydroelectric power generations. Don't forget that it is Indians who let Maoist grow using their land, and they are the one influenced to bring them on Table when they realized the Maoist are power enough to be a political force so that they can use them in their benefit later.

These are my extreme guesses. But, everything depends on whether they can have 2/3 majority or not? Madhes is the only hope that I have now. If they don't get enough votes in east Terai, and MPRF or other Madhesi parties, then the equation might change. Even throwing King out of Nepal. King might stay, because non-Maoists might need him as a Draupadi in the gamble.

God Bless you Gyanendra, and Nepali Janata. Unfortunately God did not bless to UML. It is end of UML. Congress may come out, but UML will not. I feel very sorry for UML.

Now, should we accept the poll result? Yes, we must. That is democracy, and that will leave door open for us to reach to Nepali people with a new mandate. Make sure that they don't become Polpot, and YCL does not become another Khamerouge.

GP

 

Why the sky is not falling:

Breakup up of Constituent Assembly


AND this from the EC website:

What process will the Constitution undergo before it is endorsed?

• Every proposal or bill presented regarding the Consituent Assembly has the provision of being passed on the basis of voting.
• If a consensus is not reached on a proposed bill or any of the articles, consultations will be held between the political parties respresented in the Constituent Assembly, so as to arrive at an accord.
• A second round of voting on the proposed bill or articles of dissent, will be held after the consultations have been held.
• Voting by 2/3 majority, in the presence of 2/3 representation of all the total members of the Constituent Assembly shall take place to endorse the bill, if even the second round of voting fails to strike an accord.
• If all the members vote for the motion, it is understood that a consensus is struck.

So, the magic number is 401: 401 votes  to create Limbuwan, Tharuwan etc, decide the structure of the state, etc (but 301 votes to abolish monarchy)

Captain,

 

Sharp observation about the maturity of Nepali voters and immaturity and lust of our political parties.

 

Regarding the question of the role of the presence of “opposition” in functioning of a democracy, If a SINGLE party makes the government, an opposition is indeed necessary for political check and balance.

 

In case of a coalition government of multiple parties (as Maoists are proposing), however, the mechanism of check and balance is already inherent in the government due to it’s heterogeneous composition. So democracy might still be well functioning without a formal “opposition”.

 

That brings me to RPP and other outside parties complain about the coalition interim government saying they are functioning as a “syndicate” (Prakash Chandra Lohani has written a lot on this subject). From a textbook view, that does appear the case. However, if we look back how things were done, one must say they were as vibrantly debated, conflicted and resolved as in any textbook model of government-opposition functioning anywhere.

 

We often get frequently to hear that Nepal has provided many new models for the student of revolution, conflict resolution, civil movements, peace process, interim management and now election (including mechanism). I think it indeed is the case and what Maoist is proposing is really pragmatic and 100% pure democratic experiment.

 

"अनपढ" भन्ने फिलिममा हो क्यारे ए उटा गीत छ "सकूल मे क्या पढोगे हो राम, दिल की किताब पढ लो"

 

Nepe      

 

Captian,

Very useful piece of information to reassure the doomsdayers. Thanks.

Nepe

Nepe

Interesting thoughts there, thanks for sharing. Fair points. I think an opposition role is necessary (but might not materialize in this assembly) mainly because the lack of parliamentary opposition creates a vacuum for extremists to operate in.

I think one of the reasons, amongst many, why the JTMM and other ethnic extremists ran amuck was because there was no place for people who did not identity with those in power to go to. What if I was a Madesi and did not like the Congress, UML, Maoist, Sadhvawana - where could I go to find political solace? India? You'd call me a traitor if I did that. JTMM and the likes were the only options I was left with. Likewise if I am an ethno-centric SETAMAGURALI where can I go? Limbuwan Mukti Morcha? What if I am a pan-ethnic Khas - where do I go? The King? The sad reality is party and political allegiance in Nepal breaks down along class and ethnic lines and we expose ourselves to regressive and divisive undercurrents if people feel there is no where to go if they fall out with those in power.

Therefore, to say there is no need for an opposition, in my opinion is to say you need to choose between seven or eight parties, and if you dont like any of them, go rot in hell. Since people dont like going to hell, forget about rotting there,  they'd much prefer supporting an extremist ideology right here on earth :)

That said, as per the agreements reached between the seven parties, it seems they are all going to share power, what will change is who sits on which chair :)

Have a good one. It's always a pleasure reading your thoughts.

Captain, Does it needs 2/3 majority/ or simple majority to abolish the Monarchy?

Thanks

 

 

Haddock as you said, "Voting by 2/3 majority, in the presence of 2/3 representation of all the total members of the Constituent Assembly shall take place to endorse the bill, if even the second round of voting fails to strike an accord".

How hard is it for these commies who've mercilessly killed, tortured, maimed and terrorized all in Nepal to prevent the 1/3 who support the opposition from showing up during the vote within the Assembly??  Nothing hard at all.  Didin't Badal or one of those side cronies of Prachanday throw a fit in Singha Durbar a few months ago cussing out on even the most respected of NC and UML leaders??  IMO, I see a lot of new legislatures being passed thanks to the sytematic method of intimidation that these commies have used over the past year.  Prachanday could make himself dictator and leave Nepalese who believe in them (not me) in a permanent state of shock!!  2/3 majority seems nothing given the way these fools have been behaving lately.

Raja Harischandra

You are right - it is a simple majority to abolish the monarchy. I stand corrected. Thanks for pointing it out.

159. Provisions Regarding the King:

(1) No power regarding the governance
of the country shall be vested in the king.

(2) The Prime Minister shall perform all works pertaining to the
governance and operation of the country.

(3) Notwithstanding anything contained elsewhere in this
Constitution, the simple majority in the first meeting of the Constitutional
Assembly shall take decision about whether or not to give continuation to
the monarchy.

(4) The property of late King Birendra, late Queen Aishwarya and
other members of their family shall be brought under the control of the
Government of Nepal, and a Trust shall be established to use the property
for the benefit of the nation.

(5) All the property acquired by King Gyanendra in the capacity of
the King (for instance: the palaces in different parts of the country, forests
and national parks, heritage sites of historical and anthropological
importance etc.) shall be nationalized.

What could have NC and UML done to woo these voters who so massively voted for Moist seeing those things absent in NC and UML ?

Nepe bro,
I was pondering on the same question yesterday. First I thought NC and UML didn't do as much  homework  as maoists prior to this election to try and woo the voters. But with stains of negative impressions these parties have created against themselves in front of the people over the last 18 years, I wonder if there was anything, unless something out of this world or a  miracle, they could have done to tarnish their negativities in this last few months.
And add to that the fact that maoists have come in the political framework--although initially as a violent, erratic force but gradually mutated themselves later to a  revolutionary one--with a lot of promise and potential. And that meant something to seriously consider for a majority of people who are seeking for change when they have practically nothing to lose from the ground zero where we are at the moment.

That said, one thing that they could have done to perform better, if not drastically well, in this election was perhaps if they hadn't let people with the likes of Khum bahadur, Sujata, Govinda et al.  run in the election and given some fresh young blood a chance to run instead, may be they would have been in a better position as a party. It could have relayed a message to the people: "Look we also want change. Give us a chance to start afresh." But of course, that didn't happen and the result is in front of us. Call it their inadequacies or carelessness and incapability to perform, they're paying the price and rightly so IMO.

Samsara

I am reminded of the Reagan quote "Trust but verify". In this case trust  might be hard to come by but all should seek to verify and question the government regardless of who is in power.   For argument's sake, lets say the Maoists are every thing you said, but what do you do about them? Can't kill them because if that was viable it would already have been done by now I would think. Assuming they emerge as the largest party,  and that might be possible but is still a ways away, what can those, like me,  who don't support the Maoists do?  Question, criticize, oppose and support as needed (for the sake of national interest)

At the end of this, sorry if this sounds corny, the country comes first before anything and we need to make this process, as reprehensible as some of us might find it, work. The future of this country is our common destiny regardless of our political persuasion and if we let anyone, including the Maoist screw it,  we'll only have ourselves to blame.

(Dang, I better stop before I sound like a preacher)

One last thought, my hope, and the hope of others is that power will moderate the behavior of the Maoists. If it doesn't, they are going to pay the price. People eventually overthrew a 230 year old institution that misbehaved and I am confident they will boot out a juvenile party that does not conduct itself well.

Captain,

 

Good arguments there.

 

The original question was how much vacuum (in “opposition” function) will be left if all the parties join the government. To relate to the case you gave, how difficult it will be for an unrepresented person/group to approach to the “minority” parties for representing their case when those parties are inside the government ?

 

It might be difficult, but not impossible. In real case, however, our interim constitution makers have devised a way to leave no large groups unrepresented in CA.

 

The following representation is mandatory for PR election (For FPTP election, it was suggestive only which has been partially followed)

 

37.8 % - Oppressed tribes/indigenous tribes.

31.2 % - Madhesi

13.0 % - Dalit

4.0% - Backward region

30.2% - others (pan-ethnic Khas ?)

 

[source: Schedule-1, Relating to Sub-section (3) of Section 7 of CA

Election Act 2007 ]

 

So, the huge 601 member assembly will be accessible for almost all of the people, though political parties or through population groups.

 

So, for this and other reasons, the formal “opposition” looks less essential.

 

Mero 2 paisa.

 

Nepe

 

Haddock, I get your reasoning and that is the difference between you and me.  You, being a nice guy trust the people to have a conscience whereas I believe that this conscience of ours is an easy thing to manipulate and intimidate into submission.  A time may come but often it would be too late.  The famous Keynes' Great Dep words come to mind, "In the long run, we'd all be dead."  IMO, To each his own.  I still am doubtful of what the canniving Commies would do once in office.  Lets hope its works out, if not, I could say I knew it was coming to all here a year later.  LOLs

Samsara

Point noted. All I can say is those differences make us stronger  and  at the end of the day everyone  here in Sajha and in Nepal who  voices an  opinion about politics does so, I believe, for the love of the country and the greater good of his countrymen.

You remain my favorite thinker on that side :)

Just like Nepal didn't become USA or Switzerland or Australia just because named  the system DEMOCRACY, Nepal isnt going to be Cuba or N Korea just because Maoists call the system COMMUNISTS. These are all extremistic thoughts.

Nepal needs a patriotic leader who can rise above his party when needed. Nepal needs patriotic people who can rise above their party and vote the leader who they think is good for the nation. I think the people have done it this this.Otherwise can you expect the VICE PRESIDENT of NC Sushil Koirala just getting 2200 odd votes?

I have  no doubt that the government led by Maoists wont be a typically scary communist rule, but instead just an improvement of what we had in the last 15 years: with just corruption controlled, economic and social conditions reformed. Thats why I am not too worried, but as a citizen it my responsibility to closely scrutinize what they do at every step and question them in my own way whenever needed.

You remain my favorite thinker on that side :)

An honor coming from you, Haddock.  Thanks...Wonder what sajha would be without you.  IMO, Your hiatus last year was prolly what caused all the negative ratings rants that went on here.  This forum needs you around like a fish does liquor...oops water!!  LOLs  Enjoy!

Nepe -

Fair enough - not to drag this on for ever, but  one potential flaw in that indigenous group argument is don't those members get nominated from amongst the parties? I am not sure how that process works, but nominating from within their parties could again create that vacuum we were talking about earlier. I can only hope the parties show some wisdom and maturity in hammering this out.

Also, to share an anecdote with you, I felt  like I was coming from the green planet when I brought up the idea of an opposition vacuum in Nepal recently. This  made  me wonder  whether our polity is driven by  dualing and polar forces of extreme rapprochement and extreme animosity. A little too manic-depressive for my comfort  :)

Wishing you the best.

Captain,

 

You are right. They will be hand-picked by the party bosses from the “closed list” of the PR candidates submitted to the election commission.

 

That indeed is a serious flaw of the Nepali version of PR system and I actually have been writing against it in various forums.

 

In the original version of “closed list” PR system, the list of the candidates is prepared through “primaries”. However, since neither our political parties had enough time for, nor party bosses were interested in internal elections, they went for Gorkhali kaaida- hand picking from the pool.

 

So, your fear about “opposition vacuum” is still valid.

 

However, we Nepalis have certain characteristics that make things easier. Like the flexible temperament that you mentioned, we also seem to have ability to make temporary coalition by crossing the isle when necessary. At one point of Madhesi movement, all Madhesi MPs from rival parties (NC, UML, Maoist, Sadbhavana) had stood together.

 

So that might be provide alternative avenue for “opposition” when necessary.

 

Nepe

 

 

First and foremost, punish the killer of this man.

Captain,

You are a simple person ; your logics are not.

hehehheh seeems like another big blow to MANDALEE's and CORRUPT congress and communist leader's and  their families(also son and daughter here in u.s)...maoist le punishment dinchha bhanera aahile dekhi daaaraaye jastooo chhhaa............They didn't do anything  when they got chance{congress,yeeemaale,including F***ing king}hehehehe now it seems like nepali people wants change..heheheheh real change...... let's see what they'll(maoist) do next.anyways congrat........

Good argument Captain, NEPE, Howard, and Mavrick.....i like this thread..good analysis of the situation.

Dont have much to say here but im just glad to see that Nepali People wisely used their voting excersice by not electing those corrupt politicians from  NC, UML and RPP.  I am not saying people are doing the most wise thing by voting Maoists but it appears that Nepalese people couldn't be fooled over and over.

Like Bod Dai use to sing "Can fool some people for some time but cant fool all the people all the time"