I had promised that I was going to start my own thread regarding stock investments and the markets. So many things have happened since last time I was here and I really do not feel like sharing my knowledge. But a promise is a promise and there have been few people that have emailed me and supported me.

This thread will deal with investing in the stock markets. I will not discuss individual stocks but discuss ETFs like SPY, DIA, IWM and QQQQ. The one good thing about trading ETFs compared to individual stocks is the the ETFs provide instant diversification among similar companies within the same sector.

I will post more as we go along, regarding entry-price, profit-target and stop-losses. I do not think that any ETF is good or bad. It is good only if I'm making money and bad if I'm losig money.

If you have not been in the market so far, please read this as an information piece only rather than my recommendations. There is risk involved and you should know how much risk to take on any position.

Any suggestations, comments and criticisms are welcome as long as it is market related. If this thread gets out of hand and we start discussing off-topics, I'll stop posting.

Have a happy new year!!!! May 2007 bring you and your family lots of joys and riches.

Market is in doldrums.  Bears have come in heaps. They seem not to budge at all.  Oil prices don't seem to give any breather either. Inflation is all time high. Jobless claims are rising. Dollar is weak. Almost any sector you name it- is showing sluggishness.

Am I a pessimist, or what?

When will the market turn around? Is it not the million dollar question? You bet and I bet it is true that it will turn around.

When?

bric, i think most of us here are bearish and have been bearish for a while now.

so with all the selling we have mostly enjoyed the action... However there is still more downside and i am just surprised there wasnt many sellers today.
the vix needs to go higher as well..

as for oil, it broke out last week... everyone says oil prices will crash.. but i find my personal opinion is oil has strong fundamentals... even if it does crash it will only be temporary as it will climb right back up within weeks/months unless there is some new regulations or laws that prevent..

regarding s&p , i dont know why emini u dont mention anything about s&p 1273... that is the support from march lows... it still hasnt been touched since.  so why you assume market will just roll past 1273 into around 1250. friday came close to testing 1273, but didnt touch it... it would have been a perfect place to exit short positions.

Bri, This market will hopefully bottom around October, it's a guess right now but will be able to tell with certain degree of certainity once we get to August/September.

Latoboy, 1273 has been a support but it is not a strong support. I am looking at the trend in high-yield bonds, long-term MA and the options strike price with activities. Majority of the options buyers lose money so I am trying to find the price where the majority will suffer the most pain and it is around the 1240-1260 range, so I think the market will find more support at that price. Looking at the way futures are trading right now, we can possibly get there today.

Thanks Emini and Latoboy for the responses.

Today on my way to work, I heard on NPR that oil prices are not looking to come down until 2013. They are predicting that demand and supply curve for oil to be steadily increasing on the demand side.

Alternate energy sources need to be invented.

Even the Tech sector is beaten up. Last three months we have not seen a single IPO. All the investment banks are feeling the pinch because of credit crunch and mortgage meltdowns.

Anyways, good luck to ya all on today's trading day.

Best!

Bri

Hey Emini,

I stumbled on this article at Time.com and thought I would share this with you .

 I remember you being very excited about Prabrai's book and how he made monies during the most difficult times.

http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1819293,00.html?cnn=yes

Best!
Bri

emini u are the man....   somehow in the pre-market s&p has just crushed past 1273... this can only be good for the bears...

im not a veteran at this... but my guess is more selling will continue... and test of yesterdays lows...

It might be a good idea to start taking some profits if you are short. Let someone else have the last 2-3% of what's left. It was a nice ride from 1440 to 1265.

i took profits at market open.

i now only have very small position in shorts.  s&p trading at 1262 now.
im going to let them go all the way to around 1250

S&P got to 1260.58 today. We might see a rally to 1420 from here. I will not be doing much the next few months since the volatility disappears during summer. It is like watching the paint dry.

If you are thinking about buying look at tech stocks. They held up well in this decline so they will likely go up more.

 

Oil still going up...Thanks to the Israel threats.  Whatever Israel needs to do to Iran's nuclear facilities has to be done before the end of next year.  An Obama White House would defn condemn this act...As per Street talks: Sell on the Rumors and Buy the Facts.  Thats exactly whatz been going on all day.  A further unstable Mid-East = Still Higher Oil prices.  Inflation further rising thanks to mega increases in Sugar and Silver.  Also, Dow as usual taking a beating and the SnP still fails to live upto expectations...No rally seem forthcoming anytime now.  Fundamentals are keeping the techicals in check.

A bright note, Bush's talks about a strong dollar policy may help the USD from faltering mcuh longer...But I've noticed a pattern that everytime the dude comes live on TV, the USD tanks as he's always full of bad news...Sell on the Rumors once again!!

BTW, emini, ever read the daily Gartman Report?  I subscribe to it through work and it gives a good overview of the total markets (oil, treasuries..not much of stocks)...Its ultra Right Wing but defn the report is something which helps on the fundamental side...It gives trading ideas for the day too.  It may be a lil expensive if an individual subscriber, so send me your email...Will forward you one everyday.

 

samsara, how about sharing some of your ideas and opinions on markets.

since u are talking about oil, tell me what you think.. is oil a bubble about to burst like what so many wallstreet pros to investment bankers think...

I say MAYBE .. it is a bubble which can burst, but it will soon climb back up to where it is now and higher.

same with US$, all these big dogs think dollar may rally in few months or so... but this rally will be bogus. US$ will be worthless at this rate unless there is some serious policy changes.

i have been buying USO and GLD all while last month.. little by little...

instead of following a donkey like Gartman... gartman is just a media attention seeking donkey...
follow Peter Schiff... he knows what hes talking about. if i had the kind of money i would already have an account with europac. like peter schiff says, US economy is built like a house of cards...

one thing that really surprised me this morning was.. the Oil Inventories report, and Employment numbers..
it didnt seem like it had been manipulated.

 

HAHAHAH this Latoboy says, gartman is just a media attention seeking donkey....HAHAHA  The fixed income market runs on Gartman, son!!  HAHAHAH  Gartman is an extreme right winger, so he has haterzz (solely for his political beliefs) but when it comes to talking about the markets, he's second to none!!

And a BIG no thank you, wannabe trader...Why would I even consider sharing anything with you?  I'm here to bide my time on sajha and if true traders like emini wants my help, I'd defn extend it to them.  So, pls quit asking me anything about the markets as I will NOT be answering you as I defn cannot learn anything from you on this field as you're still a novice. 

 

i hate to say this. but my opinion this proves that you are not confident in your IDEAS to post, incase it is wrong...   also may mean u are wrong more times than right.

thats fine..u dont have to share your ideas if u dont want to.

besides i would rather not listen to someone who is wrong more than right.

 

HAHAHA...I will NOT post my ideas but how about me posting my PnL on a daily basis so you could see if I was right or wrong?  HAHAHAH  Hope I don't make you shut-up like I did on Friday!!  HAHAHAH

BTW, why on earth would anyone pay $400 per month for the Gartman Letter if it is a goddamn joke?  Traders here have used it for years now and have been killing the fundamentals off it!!  And you also say "if you had the money."  WTF??  "IF"  HAHAHAHA  You don't, so stop daydreaming!!

 

btw samsara, try limiting your posts to Equities and markets...

no thanks.. i am not interested in your photoshop skills.. like the friday picture. didnt impress an IT expert like me.
the only people u might impress with your skills are college students and graphic design students

 

HAHHAHA  Choked on your drool on seeing the 6 figure returns??  HAHAH  Photoshop?  Damn, I'm a computer whiz now!!  HAHAHHA  Do I need to send you the 12K and change I'm up so far today??  HAHHA  Hey, am en route to making a killing this year so expect to see me at the next ANA in ma new Gallardo!!  HAHAHAH  I still can't fathom this kid's ignorance!!  

 

I don't know, for some reason this "Samsara" guy is so irritating and annoying to me. Why this guy have to poke his nose in every damn topics and with his arrogant postings. ...WTF....

 

Rawbee, you damn hypocrite...HAHHA  This ignoramus tells it about me, but look at him do the same:  He says "Why this guy have to poke his nose in every damn topics and with his arrogant postings"....Aren't YOU DOING THE SAME, JACKAZZ??

This is a low-risk/high reward area to buy. S&P hit 1240 yesterday. We might see a tradable rally here. If we do not hold 1240, I'm not sure what will happen.

I'm buying here and will exit if S&P closes below 1240.

actually i also went long yesterday... went long on s&p and nasdaq and royl.

vix spiked to mid twenties yesterday and oil was showing it might crack. i thought market would rally yesterday but to my surprise oil down, market went down too.

im still long..hopefully the market wont beat me up for being a bull right now...

bernankes comments has definately helped so far.. will be interesting to see how the market responds today.