http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/may/20/end-of-world-doomsday-prophets

It's not the end of the world when doomsday prophets get it wrong
Evangelical broadcaster Harold Camping is not the first to predict the Earth's demise

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Peter Collett
guardian.co.uk, Friday 20 May 2011 15.59 BST
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In the wake of a failed prophecy, a leader can always deny that he made the prediction or it can conveniently be postponed to a later date. Photograph: Alamy
On Saturday at 6pm, something cataclysmic is set to happen – the world is going to experience "Rapture". That at least is what Harold Camping, an evangelical broadcaster based in California, has been telling everyone. At the appointed hour, we're informed, all true Christians will be snatched away and rapturously transported to heaven. Everyone else – presumably the followers of other religions and people like Richard Dawkins – will be left to suffer the prolonged agony of "tribulation" until the final destruction of the universe, which is set to take place on 21 October.

There are two tantalising psychological issues surrounding the predictions made by doomsday cults. One is why people become entranced by the idea of the end of times, and the other is how they make sense after the event, when the predictions of salvation and catastrophe have failed to materialise. A number of theories have been put forward to explain the periodic rise and fall of eschatological beliefs, the most persuasive being the notion that they are fostered by pervasive feelings of insecurity.

The first proper attempt to explain how people deal with discredited doomsday predictions was described by Leon Festinger and his colleagues in their book, When Prophecy Fails. In 1954 the authors gained access to a Michigan cult who believed that there would be a great flood on 21 December, leading to the destruction of everyone except the true believers, who would be whisked to safety in a flying saucer. Festinger and his colleagues interviewed members of the cult before and after the appointed day. They discovered that instead of abandoning their beliefs when the flood and the flying saucer failed to materialise, most cult members actually consolidated their beliefs and increased their attachment to the group. They explained this in terms of "cognitive dissonance" – the psychological discomfort that people experience when their beliefs come into conflict.

There have been other occasions when failed predictions have consolidated members' attachment to their group. When the Church of the True Word prophesied nuclear disaster in the early 60s, 100 followers hid in underground shelters for several weeks, only to emerge with their beliefs strengthened, not weakened, by the experience.

Intuitively, you'd expect to find that messianic leaders who get their predictions wrong are likely to become discredited and to be abandoned by their followers. But that's not necessarily what happens. Instead, it's been suggested that because followers need to reduce their feelings of dissonance, they may actually consolidate their initial beliefs and redouble their efforts to persuade other people of their validity.

In the wake of a failed prophecy, a leader can always deny that he ever made that prediction or insist that he said something else. In some instances these denials may be premeditated, while in others they may arise from genuine distortions of memory – including what psychologists call "hindsight bias". Believers may even insist that the prophecy has happened, not in our world, but in some spiritual sphere.

Alternatively, failed prophecies may conveniently be postponed to a later date. For example, the Millerites, a north American religious group, predicted that the Second Coming would take place in 1833, but when nothing happened they rescheduled the event for 1844. This deferred solution is similar to the one used by Camping, who initially predicted that the Rapture would occur during September 1994. When nothing happened he explained it away as an error in his calculations.

Although leaders of doomsday cults occasionally profit from their errors, as Camping appears to have done, there are recorded cases where botched predictions have actually reduced the appeal of religious movements. To be on the safe side, leaders like Camping should heed the advice of Casey Stengel, the baseball legend, who insisted that we should "never make predictions, especially about the future".

Peter Collett is a psychologist and the author of The Book of Tells

http://galvestondailynews.com/story/232466 The end is near (again)

By Rick Cousins
Contributor
Published May 20, 2011
Judgment Day, as you might have heard, has been set for 6 p.m. Saturday, according to Family Radio founder and frequent end times’ prophet Harold Camping.

Camping, a retired civil engineer, has assembled a calculation he uses to assure his faithful followers of a rapid ascent to heaven just before earthquakes begin the unwinding of this world. He asserts each disaster will occur about sunset Saturday in every time zone with total planetary destruction culminating Oct. 21.

The Rev. Bob Bullock, pastor of Galveston’s West Isle Presbyterian Church, said such dire disaster predictions are nothing new.

“Every generation has its prognosticators, psychics and prophets of a new age dawning in their time,” he said.

“Times of uncertainty and chaos encourage crackpots who function out of a conspiracy theory mindset in which doomsday theories seem more plausible to those who are insecure.

“It is not surprising that present global financial crisis, wars, political instabilities in the world and even catastrophic events of the weather open the door for the crazies to draw attention to themselves.”

Social Distortion

Professor Sharon Hall, a psychologist at the University of Houston-Clear Lake, said Camping’s teachings might be attractive to a few for reasons beyond his convoluted, end-of-the-world equations.

“First, they see great trouble around the world daily,” she said. “Humans are social animals and are highly influenced by each other, especially under stress. It is literally hard for us to be critical thinkers when we are stressed.”

Second Guessing

This is Camping’s second attempt at predicting the end of all things earth. He originally predicted a world finale would begin Sept. 4, 1994, a fact noted by Michael J. Svigel, an assistant professor at Dallas Theological Seminary, who routinely debunks such claims in his blog.

“Throughout history, zealous but extremely misguided believers have tried to calculate the Lord’s return, contrary to the Bible’s explicit teaching that nobody can know the time of Judgment Day,” he said.

“One hundred percent of the time these calculations have been wrong. May 21, 2011, will simply be one more in a long line of falsely calculated dates for the Lord’s return. Unfortunately, I fear it won’t be the last.”

Blowing The Trumpet

To prepare Americans for Judgment Day, four RV-caravans have been crossing the country since September when some of Camping’s followers sold their homes and set out to spread his message by handing out tracts, putting up billboards and offering last-minute counsel to passers-by.

“Armed with the vital information needed to know the day of Christ’s return all true believers, as servants of God, (we) are commanded to declare what Christ’s Spirit has revealed,” Camping said in a prepared statement. “They must blow the trumpet and warn the world judgment is coming.”

‘Intrigued By The Unknown’

Societal shifts, job uncertainties and high gas prices certainly can induce stress, but there’s more to Camping’s limited appeal than that, Hall believes.

“We are intrigued by the unknown and do not tolerate ambiguity well,” she said. “When gurus say they have answers, many listen.”

The local Christian consensus seems to be that Camping isn’t doing local churches any favors.

“He has contributed to the further undermining of the Bible’s perceived authority in our increasingly skeptical and cynical culture,” Svigel said.

Although, the occasional reminder that nothing earthly lasts forever might be of some benefit, Hall said.

“Apocalyptic predictions are in the Bible,” she said. “Of course, my take on that as an historical document is a caution to do good while we’re here.”

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Q&A With Family Radio

The Daily News reached Tom Holt II, a spokesman for Family Radio.

DAILY NEWS: What advice would you extend to our newspaper readers vis a vis preparing for this Saturday?

HOLT: The scripture advise “watch and pray.” That (word for) watch (occurs) 34 times in the New Testament alone. In Jonah 3:8, the king and all Ninevites began to beg God for mercy when told of their impending destruction.

DAILY NEWS: How many people are expected to heed the warning being given? Are all members of the same group?

HOLT: There has never been any membership in the 52-plus years of Family Radio. (Have you ever heard of a radio station with a membership?)

DAILY NEWS: Is there any advice for those who would be left behind?

HOLT: Cry now to God for mercy — you have less than 48 hours, according to the Bible.

DAILY NEWS: Do you expect to witness the destruction that will follow the Rapture, the exodus of believers into heaven?

HOLT: No. For 2,000 years, serious Christians (have) expected to be raised into heaven just before judgment falls on Judgment Day ... The World Almanac says there are about 2.3 billion professing Christians in the world.